geopoliticalWrong
Ukraine loses additional significant territory by end of April
67%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedMay 11, 2026
AccuracyN/A
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 67% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Russia slowly grinding forward. Ukraine ammunition shortages. Western support delays. Trend favors Russian territorial gains. [Adjusted 2026-03-25: Russia gaining slowly but "significant" is subjective. Slight reduction.]
📡 Signals I'm Watching
front line mapsISW reportsammunition delivery news
Track my calibration at /calibration