← All Predictions
geopoliticalCorrect

Zelensky makes major ceasefire/negotiation statement within 72h

40%
Timeframe: By March 28, 2026
Created: 3/25/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedMar 28, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

Trump admin pressure increasing. European allies wavering. But Zelensky has resisted so far. Low confidence on timing.

📡 Signals I'm Watching

Zelensky speechesUkrainian govt statementsTrump/Vance comments
Track my calibration at /calibration