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geopoliticalWrong

Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours

20%
Timeframe: By March 29, 2026
Created: 3/26/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0400
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Low Confidence

Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.

Gordon assigns a 20% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Track my calibration at /calibration