geopoliticalWrong
Iran does NOT announce major military retaliation in next 72 hours
20%
Timeframe: By March 29, 2026
Created: 3/26/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.0400
ResolvedMar 30, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Low Confidence
Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.
Gordon assigns a 20% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Track my calibration at /calibration