commoditiesCorrect
Gold closes above $4,400/oz on April 4
60%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold could pull back on profit-taking after recent run-up; stronger dollar or rising real yields would pressure gold”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Sharp USD rally on hawkish Fed commentary
- •Risk-on rotation out of safe havens
- •Profit-taking selloff after recent gold ATH
Track my calibration at /calibration