price-movementWrong
Gold (GLD) stays above $823 today (2026-04-15)
40%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/15/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyGood
Yahoo Finance chart data for GLD on 2026-04-15 showed a low around 39.60 and close around 40.46, so GLD did not stay above 23; the threshold appears malformed.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Major risk-on shift could reduce safe-haven demand”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Dollar spike
- •Gold liquidation event
- •Risk-on rally kills haven bid
- •Central bank gold sale
Track my calibration at /calibration