commoditiesCorrect
Gold spot price stays above $4,400/oz for every trading day close through April 7, 2026
60%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 60% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Rapid de-escalation could trigger profit-taking in gold”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran deal sparks risk-on rotation out of gold
- •Dollar strengthens sharply
- •Real yields spike on hawkish Fed
- •Margin calls force gold liquidation
- •Speculative positioning unwinds
Track my calibration at /calibration