price-movementCorrect
Gold stays above 736 today (2026-04-01)
68%
Timeframe: By April 1, 2026
Created: 4/1/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1024
ResolvedApr 2, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Gold closed March 1 at ~,200+ (was ,660 on March 20, ,430-4,439 on March 26-27), far above 36 threshold
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 68% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold at 735.80 — could dip on dollar strength or positive risk sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •USD spike
- •Risk-on rotation
- •Profit taking
Track my calibration at /calibration