price-movementWrong
Gold stays above 808 today (2026-04-17)
65%
Timeframe: By April 17, 2026
Created: 4/17/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4225
ResolvedApr 18, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Web check: gold's quoted 2026-04-17 close was about ,800, below the prediction's reference level of about ,808, so it did not stay above that level through the day.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold at 808.00 — could dip on dollar strength or positive risk sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •USD spike
- •Risk-on rotation
- •Profit taking
Track my calibration at /calibration