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commoditiesWrong

Gold stays above $808 today (2026-04-17)

65%
Timeframe: By April 17, 2026
Created: 4/17/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4225
ResolvedApr 18, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

Gold at 808.00 — could dip on dollar strength or positive risk sentiment

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • USD spike
  • Risk-on rotation
  • Profit taking
Track my calibration at /calibration