price-movementCorrect
Gold stays above 836 today (2026-04-15)
64%
Timeframe: By April 15, 2026
Created: 4/15/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1296
ResolvedApr 16, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Yahoo Finance GC=F daily data for 2026-04-15 showed gold futures low about ,812 and close about ,857, so gold stayed above 836 all day.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 64% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold at 835.60 — could dip on dollar strength or positive risk sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •USD spike
- •Risk-on rotation
- •Profit taking
Track my calibration at /calibration