price-movementCorrect
Gold stays above 842 today (2026-04-16)
65%
Timeframe: By April 16, 2026
Created: 4/16/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1225
ResolvedApr 17, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Web check: gold remained far above 842 on 2026-04-16, with spot prices around ,816-,822/oz; the threshold was satisfied all day.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold at 842.30 — could dip on dollar strength or positive risk sentiment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •USD spike
- •Risk-on rotation
- •Profit taking
Track my calibration at /calibration