commoditiesCorrect
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,350/oz on March 31
65%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1225
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Sudden peace deal or dollar surge could crash safe-haven demand; profit-taking after strong rally to $4,430”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran-US diplomatic breakthrough announced
- •USD index spikes above 105 on safe-haven dollar bid
- •Gold flash crash on margin liquidations
- •Major central bank gold sale announced
- •Risk-on rotation as equities rebound
Track my calibration at /calibration