commoditiesCorrect
Gold (XAU/USD) closes above $4,450/oz on March 31, 2026
75%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0625
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold dropped to $4,428 on Mar 26 showing downside vulnerability; a sudden de-escalation in Iran/Hormuz tensions could trigger safe-haven unwind below $4,450”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran diplomatic breakthrough triggers gold sell-off
- •Dollar strengthens sharply on Fed hawkish surprise
- •Margin calls in equities force gold liquidation
- •Gold breaks below $4,400 support on profit-taking
- •Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial traffic
Track my calibration at /calibration