price-movementCorrect
Gold (XAUUSD) rises above $3,500/oz by May 4, 2026
40%
Timeframe: By May 4, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3600
ResolvedMay 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Gold rally may be overextended; profit-taking and dollar recovery could cap gains below $3,500”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Gold faces resistance at $3,400-3,450 zone
- •Dollar index rebounds above 100
- •Geopolitical tensions ease
Track my calibration at /calibration