← All Predictions
commoditiesCorrect

Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,000/oz every trading day through May 31, 2026

45%
Timeframe: By May 31, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3025
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor

GC=F min low 4363.50 vs stay-above 3000 over 2026-04-20..2026-05-31 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 45% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

Gold is currently ~$3,350/oz, well above the $3,000 floor. The threshold is 10.5% below current levels. Gold has not traded below $3,000 since early March 2026.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“A sudden risk-on rotation, aggressive dollar rally, or central bank gold selling could push gold below $3,000. Profit-taking after record highs.”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Gold drops below $3,000 intraday at any point
  • •Dollar index spikes above 105
  • •Geopolitical de-escalation reduces safe haven demand sharply
Track my calibration at /calibration