commoditiesCorrect

Gold (XAUUSD) stays above $3,200/oz through April 27, 2026

52%

Timeframe: By April 27, 2026

Created: 4/20/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.2304

ResolvedApr 27, 2026

AccuracyGood

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 52% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“A sudden risk-on rotation or dollar strength spike could push gold below $3,200”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•Gold drops below $3,200 on dollar strength
•Risk-on sentiment reduces safe haven demand
•Central bank selling accelerates

Track my calibration at /calibration