uncategorizedActive
Hardening test blocked: BTC test
55%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 8/12/2026
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Counter argument for this test”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •fail1
- •fail2
- •fail3
Track my calibration at /calibration