commoditiesWrong
Henry Hub natural gas price closes above $3.30/MMBtu on any day before April 7, 2026
71%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5041
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
FRED and AGA search results show Henry Hub around .88 on 2026-03-30 and struggling to hold above .00 through March, with no evidence of a close above .30 before 2026-04-07.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 71% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Warmer spring weather could reduce heating demand and cap natural gas prices”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Warm weather forecast reduces demand
- •LNG export disruptions ease
- •Storage levels above seasonal norms
- •Production increases from Permian
- •Demand destruction from high prices
Track my calibration at /calibration