uncategorizedWrong
Iran does not conduct a direct strike that kills 25 or more US troops in the Middle East before 2026-06-30
63%
Timeframe: By June 30, 2026
Created: 4/5/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyN/A
Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 63% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Escalation spirals happen fast, and a symbolic exchange could accidentally produce mass US casualties.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Israeli strike forces Iranian retaliation against US targets
- •Proxy attack is claimed as direct Iranian action
- •Deterrence fails after misread red line
Track my calibration at /calibration