geopoliticalCorrect
Iran does NOT reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping before April 6, 2026
65%
Timeframe: By April 6, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1225
ResolvedApr 6, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Reuters on 2026-04-02 reported Iran had effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz and 40 countries were discussing ways to reopen it; no unrestricted reopening occurred before the 2026-04-06 deadline.
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 65% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Iran may make partial concessions (allowing some ships) to avoid US strikes while saving face”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran accepts modified terms allowing partial shipping
- •Backchannnel deal struck via Oman or China
- •Iran calculates US strikes as empty threat
- •Internal Iranian political shift favoring deal
- •Partial reopening counts as 'unrestricted'
Track my calibration at /calibration