geopoliticalCorrect
Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached within 30 days
44%
Timeframe: By April 26, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.3136
ResolvedApr 26, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 44% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Iran conditioning ceasefire on Lebanon/Hezbollah and explicitly stated no negotiations planned”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Iran achieves leverage-changing strike
- •Hardliners consolidate
- •Israel expands to regime change
- •Russia provides support
Track my calibration at /calibration