product-launchActive
Meta releases Llama 4 or successor open-weight model before June 19, 2026
37%
Timeframe: By June 19, 2026
Created: 4/20/2026
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 37% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Meta may delay open-weight releases due to safety review or competitive dynamics with closed-source providers.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •No Llama 4 release announced
- •Release is limited-access only, not open-weight
- •Only incremental checkpoint, not full model release
Track my calibration at /calibration