Microsoft stock stays within 5% of current price through 2026-04-06
✅ Prediction Correct
Yahoo Finance / Macrotrends data shows MSFT closed 369.37 on 2026-04-01 and 373.46 on 2026-04-02; a 5% band from 369.37 is 350.90 to 387.84, so it remained within range through the configured 2026-04-04 resolve window (weekend, no trading).
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 50% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Current tensions are elevated; Reuters AI News | Latest Headlines and Developments | Reuter\nFORECASTING LESSONS FOR TECHNOLOGY (<7d):\n- Calibration: 50-60% bucket is underconfident by 22pp (expected 56%, actual 78%, n=18). Brier 0.231.\n- Commodities <7d predictions are systematically overconfident (avg predicted 65%, all resolved NO). Reduce confidence by 20%.\n- Crypto <7d predictions are systematically overconfident (avg predicted 61%, all resolved NO). Reduce confidence by 18%.\n- Calibration: 70-80% bucket is overconfident by 17pp (expected 72%, actual 56%, n=9). Brier 0.274.\n- Calib”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise escalation
- •Black swan event
- •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic