price-movementCorrect
NASDAQ Composite closes above 18,000 by April 9, 2026
46%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2916
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Yahoo Finance ^IXIC shows the Nasdaq Composite closed above 18,000 before the deadline, including about 22,822.42 on 2026-04-09.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 46% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tech-heavy NASDAQ more sensitive to rate expectations — at 17,600 needs 2.3% bounce but tech selling is accelerating with no positive catalyst visible”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Tech earnings pre-announcements disappoint
- •Rising rates crush growth stock multiples
- •AI spending fatigue narrative gains traction
- •Mega-cap rotation to value accelerates
- •VIX spikes above 25 triggering systematic selling
Track my calibration at /calibration