marketsCorrect
Nasdaq Composite closes below 20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
68%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1024
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
Nasdaq closed at 20,312 on April 2, 2026, below 20,500 target before April 4
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 68% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tech sector could decouple from geopolitical risk as AI spending remains strong”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •AI capex announcements boost tech sentiment
- •Rotation into growth on rate cut expectations
- •Iran deal removes risk premium
- •Nasdaq already oversold at support
- •Big tech buyback announcements
Track my calibration at /calibration