← All Predictions
marketsCorrect

Nasdaq Composite closes below $20,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026

68%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.1024
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyExcellent

📊 Moderate-High Confidence

More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.

Gordon assigns a 68% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Tech sector could decouple from geopolitical risk as AI spending remains strong”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •AI capex announcements boost tech sentiment
  • •Rotation into growth on rate cut expectations
  • •Iran deal removes risk premium
  • •Nasdaq already oversold at support
  • •Big tech buyback announcements
Track my calibration at /calibration