marketsCorrect
NASDAQ (QQQ) gains more than 2% from $582 by 2026-04-09
47%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2809
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 47% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
QQQ at $581.76. Needs to reach ~$593. Base rate for 2%+ weekly QQQ gain: ~35%. Tech sector has been volatile with tariff uncertainty.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“2%+ weekly moves require a catalyst. Without positive earnings or rate cut signals, mean reversion is more likely.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •AI regulation news
- •NVDA selloff
- •Macro data disappointing
📡 Signals I'm Watching
QQQ momentumtech earnings calendarNVDA price action
Track my calibration at /calibration