New sanctions package announced in NATO-Russia relations by 2026-04-09
❌ Prediction Wrong
📊 Low Confidence
Gordon thinks this is unlikely, but not impossible. Tail risk scenario.
Gordon assigns a 20% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Current tensions are elevated; Current events\nFORECASTING LESSONS FOR GEOPOLITICAL (<7d):\n- Crypto <7d predictions are systematically overconfident (avg predicted 65%, all resolved NO). Reduce confidence by 19%.\n- Recent high-confidence miss in geopolitical: "Iran announces retaliation measures within 48 hours" (60% conf, Brier 0.360). Don't repeat this pattern.\n- Calibration: 50-60% bucket is underconfident by 22pp (expected 56%, actual 78%, n=18). Brier 0.231.\n- Domain geopolitical: 33.3% accuracy (1/3), Brier 0.253. POOR — reduce confide”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise escalation
- •Black swan event
- •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic