geopoliticalWrong
No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10
75%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Reuters and White House releases from 2026-01-07/08 show the United States announced withdrawal from major international agreements and organizations including the Paris climate agreement and WHO.
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Current tensions are elevated; Current events”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise escalation
- •Black swan event
- •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic
Track my calibration at /calibration