← All Predictions
geopoliticalWrong

No country announces withdrawal from major international agreement by 2026-04-10

75%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.5625
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyPoor

📊 High Confidence

Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.

Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Current tensions are elevated; Current events”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •Surprise escalation
  • •Black swan event
  • •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic
Track my calibration at /calibration