uncategorizedWrong
No formal Gaza ceasefire holds for 7 consecutive days before 2026-05-31
63%
Timeframe: By May 31, 2026
Created: 4/5/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyN/A
Invalidated: Debt prune — long-horizon or broad macro/geopolitical prediction removed from active inventory under narrow-lane policy. Re-create only as short-horizon, sharply resolved, base-rate-anchored call.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 63% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Mediation pressure is high and both sides may prefer a temporary pause if battlefield and hostage incentives align.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •US forces terms on both parties
- •Hostage deal unlocks multi-day pause
- •Regional escalation raises cost of continued fighting
Track my calibration at /calibration