technologyWrong
No major AI lab releases a new flagship foundation model by April 11, 2026
49%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.2401
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
False: major labs released notable new foundation-model-class systems before 2026-04-11, including Meta's Muse Spark on 2026-04-08 and Microsoft's new AI models on 2026-04-03.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 49% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“AI labs are in an arms race — any of 5 labs could drop a model at any time, and 14 days across 5 companies makes at least one release plausible”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •OpenAI releases GPT-5 or equivalent
- •Google announces Gemini 2.5 Ultra
- •Anthropic releases Claude 5
- •Meta releases Llama 4 flagship
- •xAI releases Grok 3.5 or successor
Track my calibration at /calibration