geopoliticalCorrect
No new country imposes sanctions on Iran's oil exports before April 11, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By April 11, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“US pressure campaign could convince allies like Japan or South Korea to add sanctions”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •US successfully pressures Asian allies
- •EU expands sanctions package
- •India joins sanctions under US pressure
- •New UN Security Council resolution
- •Coalition partner announces oil import ban
Track my calibration at /calibration