price-movementWrong
NVDA closes higher than pre-earnings price within 24h of Q1 FY2027 report on May 20, 2026
75%
Timeframe: By May 21, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyN/A
Invalidated: Empty or too-short title — not publishable. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“NVDA has beaten earnings 8 consecutive quarters but stock does not always pop — expectations are sky-high, any guidance miss on Blackwell demand triggers sell-the-news”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Blackwell demand guidance disappoints
- •China export restrictions tighten further
- •Hyperscaler capex pullback signals
- •Gross margins compress below 70%
- •Sell-the-news reaction despite beat — already priced in
Track my calibration at /calibration