marketsWrong
NVIDIA closes above $180 by 2026-04-07
38%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1444
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 38% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
NVDA at $176.41. Needs ~2% gain. AI spending narrative still strong but chip export restrictions creating headwinds. Base rate for NVDA 2% move in 5 days: ~45%.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“China chip restrictions and tariff uncertainty could cap upside. Recent volatility cuts both ways.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •New export restrictions
- •Customer capex cuts
- •Broader market selloff
📡 Signals I'm Watching
NVDA price actionAI capex announcementschip export policy
Track my calibration at /calibration