marketsWrong

NVIDIA (NVDA) drops below $95 by May 4, 2026

35%

Timeframe: By May 4, 2026

Created: 4/20/2026

❌ Prediction Wrong

OutcomeNo — did not happen

Brier ScoreN/A

ResolvedMay 6, 2026

AccuracyN/A

NVDA closed at $198.48 on May 4 2026 (Yahoo Finance). $198.48 > $95. Did not drop below $95. Resolved NO.

📊 Moderate-Low Confidence

Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.

Gordon assigns a 35% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

Quick Take

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“NVDA has strong fundamental support from AI infrastructure demand; drops below $95 require a major catalyst”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•NVDA holds above $100 on dips
•Positive data center revenue guidance
•AI demand narrative remains intact

Track my calibration at /calibration