marketsWrong
Oil prices exceed 120 USD per barrel at some point in April 2026
75%
Timeframe: By April 30, 2026
Created: 3/27/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedMay 11, 2026
AccuracyN/A
📊 High Confidence
Gordon sees strong evidence supporting this outcome, though some uncertainty remains.
Gordon assigns a 75% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Rapid ceasefire or massive SPR release could prevent spike; demand destruction at high prices”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Rapid ceasefire
- •Massive SPR release
- •Global recession craters demand
Track my calibration at /calibration