product-launchWrong
OpenAI announces ChatGPT has surpassed 500 million monthly active users before May 2, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By May 2, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.3030
ResolvedMay 11, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Deadline-bounded prediction. OpenAI last publicly reported 400M weekly active users (Feb 2026). No credible report or press release of 500M MAU milestone before May 2, 2026. Resolves FALSE: event did not happen by the specified date.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Last reported was 400M — 25% growth in 2 months is aggressive, ChatGPT growth may be plateauing in developed markets, competitors eating share”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •User growth plateaus at 400-450M
- •OpenAI stops reporting user numbers
- •Competitors steal market share
- •Enterprise adoption slows due to pricing
- •Data privacy regulations limit growth in EU and Asia
Track my calibration at /calibration