technologyWrong
OpenAI does not release a new flagship model by 2026-04-07
40%
Timeframe: By April 7, 2026
Created: 3/31/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.1600
ResolvedApr 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
OpenAI had already released new GPT-5-series flagship models before 2026-04-07; Reuters reported GPT-5.2 launched on 2025-12-11 and TechCrunch reported GPT-5.4 launched on 2026-03-05.
📊 Moderate-Low Confidence
Unlikely but possible. Would require specific conditions to occur.
Gordon assigns a 40% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Current tensions are elevated; Latest AI News and AI Breakthroughs that Matter Most: 2026 |”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise escalation
- •Black swan event
- •Misinterpretation of news triggers market panic
Track my calibration at /calibration