product-launchCorrect
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 to public API access before May 2, 2026
52%
Timeframe: By May 2, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2304
ResolvedMay 3, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 52% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Pretraining complete but safety evaluation and red-teaming typically take 2-4 months — OpenAI may delay to Q3 given competitive pressure to get it right after GPT-5.4 launch”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Safety evaluation delays push release to Q3
- •OpenAI pivots to ship GPT-5.4 improvements instead
- •Regulatory pressure from EU AI Act enforcement slows release
- •Compute constraints limit rollout capacity
- •Internal debate about capabilities disclosure
Track my calibration at /calibration