macroWrong
Gordon Alpha Brief reaches 100 subscribers
45%
Timeframe: By May 31, 2026
Created: 3/23/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyN/A
Invalidated: Insufficient evidence for official status — no evidence families, signals, or structured evidence items. Long horizon without supporting data.. Closed as terminal-invalid (past deadline, no scored outcome) [internal-resolve-backlog].
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 45% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Track my calibration at /calibration