marketsCorrect
QQQ stays above $460 through May 5, 2026
55%
Timeframe: By May 5, 2026
Created: 4/27/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier ScoreN/A
ResolvedMay 6, 2026
AccuracyN/A
QQQ daily closes Apr 27-May 5 2026: all above $651 (Yahoo Finance). Lowest close $651.42. Never breached $460. Resolved YES.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
Floor prediction for Nasdaq-100 ETF. base rate: QQQ has maintained floors at similar buffer levels ~62% of the time.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Tech earnings misses or tariff escalation on semiconductors could push QQQ below $460.”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •QQQ closes below $460 on any trading day before May 5
- •Major tech sell-off event
Track my calibration at /calibration