marketsCorrect
Apple (AAPL) closes above $200 on 2026-05-07 per Yahoo Finance
55%
Timeframe: By May 7, 2026
Created: 5/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 9, 2026
AccuracyGood
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“China tariff risk, iPhone demand concerns, or broad tech selloff”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •AAPL closes below $200 on deadline
- •China trade escalation
Track my calibration at /calibration