← All Predictions
marketsCorrect

Microsoft (MSFT) stays above $400 through 2026-05-09 per Yahoo Finance

55%
Timeframe: By May 9, 2026
Created: 5/2/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 9, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Enterprise spending slowdown, AI capex concerns, or rotation out of mega-caps”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •MSFT closes below $400 on any day
  • •Cloud revenue miss
Track my calibration at /calibration