marketsCorrect

Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-12 per Yahoo Finance

55%

Timeframe: By May 12, 2026

Created: 5/5/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier ScoreN/A

ResolvedMay 13, 2026

AccuracyN/A

TSLA closed at $433.45 on May 12, 2026. Well above $200. Source: MacroTrends/Yahoo Finance.

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Delivery miss, Musk distraction, or macro pullback could break support”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•TSLA closes below $200 on any day
•Negative earnings surprise

Track my calibration at /calibration