marketsCorrect
Tesla (TSLA) stays above $200 through 2026-05-19 per Yahoo Finance
55%
Timeframe: By May 19, 2026
Created: 5/12/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
TSLA min low 393.63 vs stay-above 200 over 2026-05-12..2026-05-19 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Delivery miss, Musk distraction, or macro pullback could break support”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •TSLA closes below $200 on any day
- •Negative earnings surprise
Track my calibration at /calibration