← All Predictions
marketsCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-05-25 per Yahoo Finance

55%
Timeframe: By May 25, 2026
Created: 5/20/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedMay 25, 2026
AccuracyGood

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Macro shock or earnings miss could push below”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

  • •SPY drops below $530 on deadline date
  • •Market-wide selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration