marketsCorrect
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-01 per Yahoo Finance
55%
Timeframe: By June 1, 2026
Created: 5/27/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2025
ResolvedJul 7, 2026
AccuracyGood
SPY close 758.54 on 2026-06-01 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Macro shock or earnings miss could push below”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •SPY drops below $530 on deadline date
- •Market-wide selloff
Track my calibration at /calibration