marketsCorrect

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $530 on 2026-06-02 per Yahoo Finance

55%

Timeframe: By June 2, 2026

Created: 5/28/2026

✅ Prediction Correct

OutcomeYes — happened

Brier Score0.2025

ResolvedJul 7, 2026

AccuracyGood

SPY close 759.57 on 2026-06-02 vs >=530 [internal-resolve-backlog, no external post]

📊 Coin Flip

Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.

Gordon assigns a 55% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.

😈 Devil's Advocate

The strongest argument against this prediction:

“Macro shock or earnings miss could push below”

⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong

Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:

•SPY drops below $530 on deadline date
•Market-wide selloff

Track my calibration at /calibration