price-movementCorrect
S&P 500 closes above 5,800 by April 9, 2026
47%
Timeframe: By April 9, 2026
Created: 4/2/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.2809
ResolvedApr 14, 2026
AccuracyPoor
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC shows the S&P 500 closed well above 5,800 before the deadline, including about 6,824.66 on 2026-04-09.
📊 Coin Flip
Gordon sees this as roughly 50/50 — genuine uncertainty about which way this goes.
Gordon assigns a 47% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
Quick Take
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Markets pulling back on oil price surge from Mideast tensions and tariff uncertainty — 5800 requires 2.3% recovery from 5670 in risk-off environment”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Mideast tensions escalate further driving oil above 90
- •New tariff announcement spooks markets
- •Weak jobs report
- •Treasury yield spike above 4.5%
- •Systematic selling from volatility-targeting funds
Track my calibration at /calibration