marketsCorrect
S&P 500 closes above 6,200 on March 31
69%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
✅ Prediction Correct
OutcomeYes — happened
Brier Score0.0961
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyExcellent
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 69% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“S&P in 5th straight losing week, correction territory, ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis; oil above $110 crushes margins; prior market short-term predictions all resolved FALSE”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Weekend geopolitical escalation triggers gap-down Monday
- •Oil spikes above 120 crushing corporate margins
- •Margin call cascade in leveraged positions
- •Major bank earnings warning
- •Consumer confidence data shock
Track my calibration at /calibration