marketsWrong
S&P 500 closes below 5,500 on any trading day before April 4, 2026
69%
Timeframe: By April 4, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4761
ResolvedApr 4, 2026
AccuracyPoor
below $500 — actual $6582.69
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 69% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Iran deadline extension and potential diplomatic breakthrough could spark relief rally above 5,600”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Ceasefire announcement before April 6
- •Fed emergency intervention
- •Oil drops below 5 on Hormuz reopening
- •Major fiscal stimulus announcement
- •Short squeeze in oversold equities
Track my calibration at /calibration