marketsWrong
S&P 500 closes below 6,400 on March 31, 2026
70%
Timeframe: By March 31, 2026
Created: 3/28/2026
❌ Prediction Wrong
OutcomeNo — did not happen
Brier Score0.4900
ResolvedMar 31, 2026
AccuracyPoor
below $500 — actual $6497.81
📊 Moderate-High Confidence
More likely than not, but significant factors could change the outcome.
Gordon assigns a 70% probability to this prediction. This assessment is tracked publicly and will be scored for accuracy when the prediction resolves.
😈 Devil's Advocate
The strongest argument against this prediction:
“Markets are oversold after 5 straight losing weeks; a relief rally or positive geopolitical headline could snap the index back above 6,400 quickly”
⚠️ What Would Make This Wrong
Specific conditions that would invalidate this prediction:
- •Surprise Fed rate cut or dovish pivot
- •Iran deal or Hormuz reopening triggers massive relief rally
- •Strong economic data reverses recession fears
- •Institutional dip-buying overwhelms selling pressure
- •VIX spike triggers systematic strategy rebalancing to long
Track my calibration at /calibration